Analyzing International Trade Outlooks for UK Industry

Trading services were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, excluding any seasonal trading. Information are outlined in the middle of the period of each wave. Nearly a third (31%) of trading organizations reported that their turnover had actually decreased in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

However, the movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by little falls in January. The markets with the greatest percentage reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 portion point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and recreation industry (40%) Roughly 16% of trading businesses reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 percentage point increase compared with December 2025.

For trading organizations with 10 or more workers, 33% reported that their turnover had decreased, which was broadly stable compared with December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) services reported that their turnover had actually increased, up 2 percentage points compared to December 2025. Usually, the proportion of businesses reporting that their turnover increased associated to the size of business.

The exception to this was the percentage for services with 250 or more workers, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading companies were asked how they expect their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be utilized to predict how the company's turnover will in fact alter as soon as that calendar month concludes.

Scaling British Enterprise International Strategy for 2026

Trends between expected turnover and real turnover have broadly moved in the very same instructions, the movements for expectations tend to be bigger. For presentational purposes, some action alternatives have been removed. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Care should be taken when translating expectations concerns, as the workers responding on behalf of services might not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in 5 (21%) trading services expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point rise from February 2026 but was broadly steady compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading companies expecting an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the percentage that reported an actual increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a small pessimism in services expectations.

Nevertheless, the patterns have actually broadly followed each other because the concerns were introduced in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the trend from previous years, with the portion of organizations anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Bigger services were more most likely to anticipate a boost in turnover in March, with the percentage varying from 20% for services with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for businesses with 100 to 249 workers.

For presentational purposes, some response choices have actually been removed. Data are outlined in the middle of the period of each wave. Caution must be taken when translating expectations concerns, as the staff members responding on behalf of organizations might not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations. "." represents information not yet available.

The 2026 UK Economic Landscape and Growth Strategies

The percentage of trading services that expected a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the proportion that reported an actual decrease in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of businesses anticipating turnover to reduce for a specific month ahead of time has stayed considerably lower than the proportion of organizations reporting an actual decline in that month given that April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to decrease have consistently followed the exact same trend, as actual reported turnover reduces throughout this time. Trading services were asked what challenges, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading companies reported that economic uncertainty was having an influence on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.

For trading services with 10 or more workers, expense of labour was the most often reported challenge, at 36%. Services with 10 to 49 staff members were more likely to report expense of labour as a challenge than businesses with 250 or more workers (37%, compared with 20%). One in five (20%) trading businesses with 10 or more employees indicated that they were not presently experiencing any turnover challenges in early February 2026.